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Financial Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia

In: Business and Management

Submitted By giba
Words 3302
Pages 14
1.0 Pengenalan

Sistem kewangan merupakan satu sistem yang mengandungi institusi perbankan, pasaran kewangan, pengantara kewangan lain seperti dana persaraan dan syarikat insurans. Sebuah badan kawal besar, iaitu bank pusat yang menyelia dan mengawasi operasi pengantara kewangan ini. Ia merupakan satu sektor dalam ekonomi yang menggunakan sumber-sumber produktif untuk memudahkan pembentukan modal melalui peruntukan daripada pelbagai alat-alat kewangan, iaitu memenuhi pelbagai keperluan antara pemberi pinjaman dan peminjam. Maka, sistem kewangan memainkan peranan yang penting dalam mengerahkan(mobilizing), pengantara untuk simpanan(intermediating saving), dan memastikan sumber-sumber ini adalah diperuntukkan dengan cekap kepada sektor-sektor yang produktif. Selain itu, Wang yang dominan dalam sesebuah ekonomi sekarang ialah wang kredit, wang yang tercipta ekoran aktiviti sektor perbankan mengambil deposit dan mengeluarkan pinjaman. Perkembangan ini serta peningkatan pesat inovasi kewangan dalam ekonomi berasaskan kredit boleh mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di sesebuah negara.

Ini yang menjadikan peranan sektor kewangan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sering menimbulkan perdebatan di kalangan ahli-ahli ekonomi. Misalnya Miller (1998) yang menyatakan bahawa sektor kewangan telah dilebih-nyatakan(over-stressed) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Manakala, ahli ekonomi lain seperti Schumpeter (1911) dan Mikinnon (1973) yang menggunakan pelbagai kaedah ekonometrik telah memberikan kesimpulan yang sama, iaitu sektor kewangan adalah penting untuk mempengaruhi kegiatan ekonomi di sesebuah negara. Pandangan ini menyokong hipotesis sektor kewangan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi (finance leading growth) atau dikenali sebagai hipotesis dorongan penawaran. Ini bererti pembangunan sektor kewangan adalah pra-syarat kepada perkembangan kegiatan ekonomi. Sebaliknya, jika pembangunan kewangan dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi, maka keadaan ini menyokong hipotesis ikutan permintaan (demand hypothesis).

Menyedari kepentingan sektor kewangan sebagai pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, sistem kewangan telah mengalami perubahan yang radikal serta kemajuan. Reformasi, liberalisasi dan inovasi dalam sektor kewangan telah menjadi semakin maju, kukuh dan berkembang. Selain itu, Malaysia telah memperkenalkan Pelan Induk Sektor Kewangan(PISK). Pelan Induk Sektor Kewangan(PISK) ini menggariskan empat strategi utama, iaitu pertama, menambahkan keberkesanan dan daya saing institusi kewangan domestik. Kedua, menggalakkan infrastruktur sistem pembayaran yang efisien dan stabil. Ketiga, menggalakkan kestabilan kewangan melalui rangka kerja pengawal seliaan berhemat yang teguh dan risiko terlaras. Keempat, mewujudkan infrastruktur perlindungan pengguna yang efisien dan didorong oleh pasaran. Keempat-empat strategi PISK tersebut akan menyebabkan landskap sektor kewangan pada masa hadapan bercirikan sektor kewangan yang semakin pelbagai untuk memenuhi keperluan sektor ekonomi yang berubah-ubah. Usaha kerajaan tersebut adalah selaras dengan matlamat utama negara untuk memodenkan sistem kewangan negara yang berupaya menyumbang kepada pembangunan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam masa jangka panjang.

2.0 Kemunculan Pasaran Kewangan Dan Pengantara Kewangan

Pengantara kewangan muncul terutamanya disebabkan maklumat dan kos urus niaga. Dalam sebuah ekonomi, terdapat ejen-ejen mungkin mempunyai dana tambahan, manakala sesetengah pengusaha akan mengalami kekurangan dana untuk membiayai projek-projek pelaburan. Untuk meningkatkan dana yang diperlukan dalam ketiadaan sistem kewangan yang kukuh, para usahawan perlu mendapatkan agen-agen individu yang mempunyai lebihan dana untuk dipinjam. Sejak ejen-ejen kurang pengetahuan tentang projek pelaburan yang melibatkan, dan para usahawan perlu mendapat tahu ejen-ejen yang mana mempunyai lebihan dana dan berapa dana bersedia dipinjam, proses ini ternyata memakan masa dan mahal.

Tambahan pula, apabila pemberi pinjaman dan peminjam tidak berkongsi maklumat bersama, kontrak kewangan yang optimum sering melibatkan kos-kos agensi, iaitu kos-kos yang memerlukan dalam memantau projek pelaburan(Williamson,1986). Peminjam biasanya mempunyai maklumat dalaman mengenai projek-projek pelaburan, tetapi mereka mempunyai sedikit insentif mendedahkan maklumat seperti itu. Usaha-usaha yang diperbuat oleh pihak ketiga untuk memperolehi maklumat tambahan sering mahal. Oleh itu, tanpa pemindahan maklumat baik, pasaran kredit akan menjalankan dengan teruk .

Pasaran kewangan yang berfungsi (Well-functioning financial markets) dan perantara-perantara memastikan dana diperuntukkan dengan cekap. Melalui ekonomi bidangan dan ekonomi skop, pasaran kewangan dan pengantara kewangan mampu memperbaiki masalah kos maklumat yang tidak seimbang dan urusniaga yang tinggi. Keupayaan pasaran kewangan dan institusi-institusi kewangan mengurangkan geseran pasaran ini boleh membawa kepada lebih banyak peruntukan sumber dengan cekap, dengan itu menggalakkan pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang (Levine, 1993).

2.1 FUNGSI-FUNGSI SISTEM KEWANGAN

Dalam artikel Levine (1997) mengklasifikasikan fungsi-fungsi sistem kewangan ke dalam lima kategori-kategori berikut:

2.11Memperuntukkan Sumber (Allocating Resources)

Satu sistem kewangan yang berfungsi dengan baik membawa kepada peruntukan sumber yang lebih cekap. Tobin dan Brainard (1963) berpendapat bahawa dengan keupayaan untuk menilai projek-projek pelaburan, pengantara kewangan membolehkan usahawan mengembangkan perniagaan mereka dengan meminjam pada kadar yang rendah dan dengan lebih mudah. Pengantara kewangan menilai peluang pelaburan yang berbeza dengan menilai risiko yang berkaitan supaya dana disalurkan kepada projek-projek yang paling menjanjikan keuntungan pada masa hadapan. Ini membawa kepada peningkatan kualiti pelaburan yang boleh mempunyai kesan pengembangan terhadap ekonomi. Pasaran kewangan mungkin mempunyai kelebihan perbandingan ke atas pengantara kewangan untuk membiayai projek-projek pelaburan baru yang inovatif kerana peserta pasaran boleh memperoleh maklumat yang relevan di firma-firma dengan cepat, membawa kepada peruntukan sumber yang lebih cekap.

2.12Memobilisasi Tabungan (Mobilizing Saving)
Pengantara kewangan dan pasaran kewangan menjalankan tugas yang penting dalam menyelaraskan simpanan dan keputusan pelaburan isi rumah dan firma-firma (Wicksell, 1935). Simpanan dari isi rumah boleh jadi tidak mencukupi untuk membiayai sepenuhnya kepada seorang peminjam. Sistem kewangan mendorong mobilisasi tabungan dengan penggemblengan simpanan isi rumah dan membuat dana agregat ini bersedia untuk dipinjam. Maka, apabila sistem kewangan berkembang, lebih banyak deposit akan tertarik dari penyimpan, dan lebih banyak dana boleh didapati untuk membuat pelaburan. Ini memudahkan aktiviti-aktiviti pengantara kewangan dan mendalami sistem kewangan.

2.13Mengurangkan Risiko (Reducing Risks)

Sistem kewangan yang cekap membolehkan pelabur untuk mempelbagaikan portfolio mereka dan melindung nilai terhadap risiko. Dengan kelebihan sejumlah besar peminjam dan pemberi pinjaman, pengantara kewangan berkesan boleh menyediakan kecairan dengan betul sepadan dengan tempoh kematangan pinjaman yang berbeza (Diamond dan Dybvig, 1983). Kemunculan pengantara kewangan ketara mengurangkan risiko mudah tunai yang dihadapi oleh individu, dan dengan itu memudahkan aktiviti pelaburan. Hasilnya, liquidations tidak perlu dapat dielakkan (Bencivenga dan Smith, 1991). Pasaran kewangan juga menyediakan mudah tunai yang lebih daripada mencukupi. Banyak projek pelaburan yang berpotensi menguntungkan memerlukan komitmen jangka panjang modal, tetapi pelabur-pelabur sering keberatan untuk mengikat simpanan mereka. Pasaran kewangan, terutama pasaran saham, menawarkan satu penyelesaian dengan membenarkan pelabur-pelabur untuk melabur dalam projek pulangan yang tinggi dan berupaya menjual pelaburan dengan cepat dan mendapatkan wang tunai apabila perlu. Ini membuat pasaran saham sering menarik pelabur yang ramai.

2.14Memudahkan Urus Niaga (Facilitating Transactions)

Transaksi perniagaan dipermudahkan melalui menawarkan kemudahan kredit. Gurley dan Shaw (1960) berhujah bahawa fungsi utama pengantara kewangan adalah untuk mengubah sekuriti utama ke dalam sekuriti tidak langsung. Pengantara kewangan boleh mendapatkan keuntungan semasa transformasi ini dengan mengeksploitasi ekonomi bidangan dalam pemberian pinjaman dan pinjaman. Sejak pengantara kewangan boleh mengurus dan melabur dana pada kos yang lebih rendah, individu boleh mengelakkan untuk menilai setiap peminjam yang berpotensi dan firma-firma yang ingin meminjam boleh menjimatkan masa dan usaha untuk mencari dana yang ketara. Ini mengurangkan kos maklumat dan sangat memudahkan urus niaga.

2.15Menjalankan Kawalan Korporat(Exercising Corporate Control)

Kos yang berkaitan dengan pemantauan yang dibuat oleh firma mungkin menurun dengan adanya peningkatan perkhidmatan yang disediakan oleh pengantara kewangan. Jika ia adalah mahal untuk pelabur luar untuk mengesahkan pulangan projek, firma akan digalakkan untuk pinjaman lebih, memandangkan bahawa meminjam lagi membayangkan risiko yang lebih besar. Oleh itu, kos pengesahan ini boleh menghalang pelaburan yang cekap (Bernanke dan Gertler, 1989). Dengan kewujudan pengantara kewangan, Diamond (1984) menunjukkan bahawa kos pemantauan akan dikurangkan melalui aturan kewangan yang betul. Dari perspektif pasaran kewangan, penilaian aset syarikat yang berdasarkan harga saham menyediakan pengukur asas untuk mengukur prestasi pengurus. Ini membawa kepada kawalan korporat yang bertambah baik, dan boleh mengenakan pengaruh yang positif ke atas pertumbuhan ekonomi.

3.0 Latar Belakang Teori Dan Kajian Lepas

Menurut Schumpeter (1911) bahawa para pengusaha memerlukan kredit supaya membiayai penerimaan teknik pengeluaran yang baru. Bank-bank dipandang sebagai agen utama dalam memudahkan aktiviti-aktiviti pengantara kewangan ini dan meningkatkan pembangunan ekonomi. Maka, sistem kewangan yang sempurna dan maju boleh menyalurkan sumber kewangan bagi penggunaa produktif. Penjelasan alternatif dimulakan oleh Robinsons (1952) mengemukakan pembangunan kewangan itu tidak membawa kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi. Sebaliknya, pembangunan kewangan membalas secara pasif kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai permintaan lebih tinggi bagi perkhidmatan kewangan. Bila sebuah ekonomi mengembang, isi rumah dan firma-firma menuntut lebih banyak perkhidmatan kewangan. Sebagai respons bagi permintaan yang meningkat ini, lebih banyak institusi kewangan, produk dan perkhidmatan kewangan muncul, dengan itu membawa kepada pengembangan sistem kewangan.

Keynes (1936) yang mengemukakan teori keutamaan kecairan, percaya bahawa faktor kewangan juga penting untuk meransang aktiviti di sektor benar. Misalnya, kemajuan dalam sektor kewangan akan menyebabkan peningkatan agregat kewangan dan seterusnya menjatuhkan kadar bunga pinjaman. Kejatuhan kadar bunga pinjaman pula, akan meransang sektor benar seperti peningkatan pelaburan domestik, penggunaan kerajaan. Walau bagaimanapun, mengikut pandangan Keynes, terdapat situasi yang mana wang tidak memainkan apa-apa peranan dalam aktiviti ekonomi semasa perangkap kecairan.

Gurley dan Shaw (1955), Goldsmith (1969) dan Hicks (1969). Mereka berhujah yang pembangunan sistem kewangan terlalu penting dalam merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sistem kewangan yang kurang maju melambatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Menurut mereka adalah pentingnya merumuskan dasar bertujuan untuk memperluaskan sistem kewangan supaya menggalakkan pertumbuhan. Ini termasuk mencipta lebih banyak institusi kewangan, dan menyediakan pelbagai jenis produk kewangan yang lebih besar dan perkhidmatan

Dua liberalisasi kewangan model dibangunkan oleh McKinnon (1973) dan Shaw (1973) menegaskan aspek berbeza tentang kesan-kesan menaikkan kadar faedah. McKinnon model menekankan hubungan antara kadar deposit dan pelaburan. Manakala Shaw menumpukan pada pentingnya aktiviti pinjam-meminjam. Wang di luar merujuk kepada wang yang diadakan di luar asas kewangan, contohnya, emas atau wang tunai. Sebaliknya, wang di dalam merujuk kepada jenis-jenis hutang yang digunakan sebagai wang. Untuk pertimbangan praktikal, kebanyakan projek-projek yang dibiayai oleh gabungan dana sendiri (wang di luar) dan dana yang dipinjam (wang di dalam)). Lantarannya, kedua model ini seharusnya diperhatikan sebagai saling melengkapi. McKinnon-Shaw model mempunyai implikasi-implikasi yang kuat untuk pembangunan kewangan, yang boleh mula dengan membenarkan kadar faedah benar untuk aliran bebas menurut mekanisme pasaran.

Menurut Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi Dan Norain Mod Asri (2008) mengkaji pengaruh pembangunan sektor kewangan terhadap kegiatan ekonomi yang terdiri daripada tiga sektor utama, iaitu sektor pertama, sektor kedua dan sektor ketiga. Hasil kajian menunjukkan pemboleh ubah kedalaman kewangan iaitu M3/KDNK hanya signifikan mempengaruhi output sektor pertama sahaja. Manakala pemboleh ubah kadar bunga pinjaman benar (RLR) hanya signifikan mempengaruhi sektor ketiga sahaja. Penemuan kajian ini menyokong hipotesis sektor kewangan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi(finance led growth hypothesis). Sebaliknya bagi sektor kedua, didapati perubahan output sektor tersebut signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan M3/KDNK, ini menunjukkan sektor kedua wujud fenomena (demand-following hypothesis).

Pada prinsipnya, peningkatan dalam sistem kewangan boleh mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui dua terusan: iaitu saluran pengumpulan modal dan faktor produktiviti keseluruhan(TFP). Saluran pengumpulan modal juga dikenali sebagai saluran kuantitatif Pertumbuhan ekonomi bergantung kepada pengumpulan modal melalui pengumpulan modal tempatan dan pelaburan modal asing. Dalam cara ini, pembangunan kewangan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah berkaitan. Saluran TFP, yang dirujuk sebagai saluran kualitatif, mengemukakan satu sistem kewangan yang cekap memudahkan penerimaan teknologi moden untuk meningkatkan pembangunan pengetahuan dan industri berintensifkan teknologi, melalui peruntukan kredit yang cekap dan perkhidmatan kewangan lain.

4.0 Data Dan Kerangka Model
Kajian ini adalah menganalisis hubungan yang wujud antara pembangunan kewangan dengan nilai output (KDNK) bagi sektor pertama di Malaysia. Sektor pertanian, perikanan, penternakan, perhutanan dan perlombongan adalah terletak dalam kategori sektor pertama. Jadi, nilai output yag dihasilkan dalam kategori ini akan dikumpul dan dikira semula dengan harga konstan pada tahun 1987.
Pemboleh ubah kewangan yang dipilih terdiri daripada pemboleh ubah kedalaman kewangan (financial deepening) iaitu nisbah penawaran wang M3 kepada KDNK(M3/KDNK), nisbah kredit sektor perbankan kepada KDNK keseluruhan dan kadar pertumbuhan pembentukan modal kasar(gross capital formation growth rate). Ketiga pemboleh ubah yang dipilih adalah selaras dengan kajian empirikal yang lepas serta dapat menerangkan daya saing sistem kewangan negara. Data untuk pemboleh ubah kewangan adalah diperolehi dari World Data Bank dan Bank Negara Malaysia, manakala data output bagi sektor pertama adalah dikumpul dari laporan ekonomi Malaysia mengikut pelbagai tahun. Jangka masa kajian bermula dari tahun 1970 hingga tahun 2009 yang melibatkan sebanyak 40 tahun.
Fungsi model persamaan jangka panjang yang dianggarkan adalah berbentuk seperti berikut:
Lst = f(L(M3/KDNK)t, L(Credit)t, L(Capital)t) yang mana Lst mewakili Ls1. Koefisien untuk setiap pemboleh ubah bersandar dijangka melebihi sifar. Ini bermaksud peningkatan pemboleh ubah kewangan akan meningkatkan nilai output bagi sektor pertama.

5.0 Hasil Kajian
5.1Unit Roots Test
Jadual satu menunjukkan keputusan ujian punca unit (unit roots test) dengan menggunakan kaedah ADF dan Philips-Perron. Berdasarkan hasil kajian yang dijalankan, didapati semua pemboleh ubah siri masa tersebut adalah pegun dalam bentuk pembezaan pertama (first difference) atau I(1), manakala hanya pemboleh ubah capital pegun dalam bentuk pembezaan asas (level). Ini membuktikan bahawa kesemua pemboleh ubah yang dikaji adalah pegun, min dan variannya adalah konstan melalui masa.

Table 1 Unit Root Test
Variable Malaysia Level FD
LS1 -2.882350** -6.518204***
LIQUID -1.260334 -4.617884***
CREDIT -1.877774 -5.420164***
CAPITAL -5.502886*** -9.224004***

FD, first difference
***Significant at 1% level; **significant at 5% level; *significant at 10% level.
5.2 Johansen Cointegration Test

Keputusan ujian kointegrasi johanson bagi pembangunan kewangan dengan sektor pertama ditunjukkan pada jadual 2. Berdasarkan kajian yang dijalankan, terdapat hubungan jangka panjang (kointegrasi) antara pembangunan kewangan dengan sektor pertama. Hal ini dapat dilihat, apabila nilai P adalah signifikan pada aras keertian 5 peratus dan Ujian Trace menunjukkan 2 cointegrasi pada aras keertian 5 pada pemboleh ubah bebas liquid, credit dan capital. Dalam hal ini, kita boleh membuat kesimpulan bahawa wujud kointegrasi antara pembangunan kewangan dengan sektor pertama.

Justeru analisis boleh dilakukan untuk melihat hubungan jangka pendek dengan menggunakan Model Vector Pembetulan Ralat (VECM). Model ini dilakukan untuk melihat beberapa lama kejutan yang berlaku dapat dibetulkan sehingga mencapai keseimbangan menerusi pelarasan jangka pendek.

Table 2 Johansen Cointegration Test Results Model I

Model II

Model III

Dependent variable SEK 1t SEK 1t SEK 1t
Explanatory variables LIQUIDt CREDITt CAPITALt Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Prob. ** Prob. ** Prob. **
Trace
None* 0.0234** 0.0445** 0.0077***
At most 1* 0.0164** 0.0195** 0.0164**
At most 2*
At most 3*
Aigen value
None* 0.1155 0.1885 0.0403**
At most 1* 0.0164** 0.0195** 0.0164**
At most 2*
At most 3*
‘**’ denotes the MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values.

5.3Model Vector Pembetulan Ralat (VECM)

Berdasarkan keputusan model Model Vector Pembetulan Ralat(VECM) di jadual 3, didapati pengaruh pemboleh ubah kewangan iaitu Liquid (M3/KDNK) signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan output di sektor pertama dalam jangka masa panjang. Jika diperhatikan, nilai koefisien ialah 0.854 yang menunjukkan bahawa sektor pertama sangat sensitif dipengaruhi oleh pembangunan kewangan (liquid). Selain itu, bagi pengaruh pemboleh ubah kewangan iaitu Capital juga signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan output di sektor pertama dalam jangka masa panjang. Manakala hanya pengaruh pemboleh ubah kewangan iaitu Credit tidak signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan output di sektor pertama dalam jangka masa panjang. Dalam jangka masa pendek, didapati kesemua koefisien yang diperolehi bagi pembangunan kewangan dengan sektor pertama adalah tidak signifikan, oleh itu, kesimpulan boleh dibuat bahawa tiada hubungan jangka pendek antara pembangunan kewangan dengan sektor pertama.

Table 3 Model Vector Pembetulan Ralat(VECM) Model I

Model II

Model III

Long run coefficients
Liquidt 0.854232***
(6.99264)
Creditt 0.214541
(0.68867)
capitalt 0.391182***
(3.67913)
Error-correction term -0.122738***
(-2.70788) -0.042958***
(-2.73538) -0.037287***
(-2.51379)

Short run coefficients

Sektor1t-1 -0.233850
(-1.51952) -0.258874
(-1.55343) -0.149790
(-0.84511)
Sektor1t-2 -0.021538
(-1.34182) -0.293218
(-1.78179) -0.191505
(-1.17170)
Liquidt-1 -0.090812
(-1.68180)
Liquidt-2

Creditt-1

Creditt-2

Capitalt-1

Capital t-2 0.0263310
(0.421590)

-0.010915
(-0.30255)
0.029530
0.082880

0.039091
(0.85162)
0.019804
(0.57179)
The asterisk of ‘***’, ‘**’, ‘*’ indicates significance at the 1%,5%,10% levels,respectively

5.4VAR Granger Causality

Berdasarkan kajian yang dijalankan, didapati sektor pertama dengan pembangunan kewangan (liquid) adalah saling mempengaruhi, ini dibuktikan dengan nilai P yang dihasilkan masing-masing 0.0550* dan 0.0021***. Akan tetapi, jika pada aras keertian 1, pembangunan kewangan (Liquid) adalah lebih dipengaruhi oleh output dalam sektor pertama. Di sini kita boleh memyokong hipotesis ikutan permintaan, iaitu membuat kesimpulan bahawa pembangunan kewangan (liquid) adalah lebih dipengaruhi oleh perkembangan aktivit ekonomi.

Di samping itu, berdasarkan kajian yang dijalankan, didapati pemboleh ubah bebas (Capital) adalah signifikan mempengaruhi output dalam sektor pertama pada aras keertian 10. Penemuan kajin ini menyokong hipotesis dorongan penawaran, iaitu pembangunan kewangan merupakan pra-syarat kepada perubahan output dalam sektor pertama.

Table 4 VAR Granger Causality Model I

Model II

Model III

Dependent variable Independent variable Independent variable Independent variable Independent variable LIQUID CREDIT CAPITAL Sektor 1 Sektor 1 0.0550* 0.5830 0.0566* Liquid 0.0021*** credit 0.1296 capital 0.3153 The asterisk of ‘***’, ‘**’, ‘*’ indicates significance at the 1%,5%,10% levels,respectively

6.0Kesimpulan

Berdasarkan kajian yang dijalankan, terdapat hubungan jangka panjang (kointegrasi) antara pembangunan kewangan dengan sektor pertama. Berdasarkan keputusan model Model Vector Pembetulan Ralat (VECM), didapati Liquid (nisbah M3/KDNK) signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan output di sektor pertama dalam jangka masa panjang. Jika diperhatikan, nilai koefisien ialah 0.854 yang menunjukkan bahawa sektor pertama sangat sensitif dipengaruhi oleh pembangunan kewangan (liquid). Selain itu, bagi pengaruh pemboleh ubah kewangan iaitu Capital juga signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan output di sektor pertama dalam jangka masa panjang. Di sini, kajian menunjukkan bahawa semakin banyak deposit yang disimpan dalam sistem perbankan, semakin banyak kredit yang boleh diberikan kepada sektor pertama.

Berdasarkan kajian yang dijalankan(causuality test), didapati sektor pertama dan pembangunan kewangan (liquid) adalah saling mempengaruhi, ini dibuktikan dengan nilai P yang dihasilkan masing-masing 0.0550* dan 0.0021***. Akan tetapi, jika pada aras keertian 1, pembangunan kewangan (liquid) adalah lebih dipengaruhi oleh output dalam sektor pertama. Di sini kajian yang dijalankan memyokong hipotesis ikutan permintaan, iaitu pembangunan kewangan (Liquid) adalah lebih dipengaruhi oleh perkembangan aktivit ekonomi. Di samping itu, berdasarkan kajian yang dijalankan, didapati pemboleh ubah bebas (Capital) adalah signifikan mempengaruhi output dalam sektor pertama pada aras keertian 10. Penemuan kajin ini menyokong hipotesis dorongan penawaran, iaitu pembangunan kewangan merupakan pra-syarat kepada perubahan output dalam sektor pertama (seperti pelaburan domestik terhadap penambahbaikan tanah yang sedia ada untuk sektor pertama).

7.0Rujukan
Bernanke, B. And Gertler, M. (1989) Agency Costs, Net Worth, And Business Fluctuations. American Economic Review 79: 14-31.
Diamond, D. W. And Dybvig, P. H. (1983) Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, And Liquidity. Journal Of Political Economy 91: 401-419.
Gurley, J. G. And Shaw, E. S. (1955) Financial Aspects Of Economic Development. American Economic Review 45: 515-538.
Keynes, J. M. (1936) The General Theory Of Employment, Interest And Money. Macmillan: Cambridge University Press.
Levine, R. And Zervos, S. (1998) Stock Markets, Banks, And Economic Growth. American Economic Review 88: 537-558.
Levine, R. (1997) Financial Development And Economic Growth: Views And Agenda. Journal Of Economic Literature 35: 688-726.
Mckinnon, R. I. (1973) Money And Capital In Economic Development. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.
Miller,M.H.1998. Financial Markets And Economic Growth. Journal Of Applied Corporate 11(3): 8-14.
Robinson, J. (1952) The Rate Of Interest And Other Essays. London: Macmillan.
Shaw, E. S. (1973) Financial Deepening In Economic Development. New York: Oxford University Press.
Schumpeter, J. A. (1911) The Theory Of Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Tobin, J. And Brainard, W. C. (1963) Financial Intermediaries And The Effectiveness Of Monetary Control. American Economic Review 53: 383-400.
Williamson, S. D. (1986) Costly Monitoring, Financial Intermediation, And Equilibrium Credit Rationing. Journal Of Monetary Economics 18: 159-179.
Wicksell, K. J. G. (1935) Lectures On Political Economy, Volume 2. London: Routledge And Kegan Paul. www.worlddatabank.com.2011.Comhttp://Data.Worldbank.Org/Indicator/FM.AST.DOMS.CN?Page=5[3 December 2011].

Www.Treasury.Gov.My. 2011.Http://Www.Bnm.Gov.My/Index.Php?Ch=12[1 December 2011]
Zulkefly Abd Karim, Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Norain Mod Asri.2008. Pembangunan Kewangan Dan Pertumbuhan Sektor-Sektor Pertama: Bukti Empirikal Di Malaysia. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia 42:65-89.…...

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