Effects of Ral Exchange Rate on Turkey

In: Business and Management

Submitted By naddy16
Words 16182
Pages 65
The Developing Economies, XLI-4 (December 2003): 401–35

401

EFFECTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY
HAKAN BERUMENT MEHMET PASAOGULLARI

This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary.

I.

INTRODUCTION

interest among academics and policymakers on the controversial issue of exchange rate policies in general and exchange rate regimes and real exchange rates in particular. The effects of financial crises on the global economy are getting more severe, and international trade and capital movements have begun to be central factors in the evolution of such a crisis. Domestic factors that lead to crises in various countries are different, but there are also common features of these crises: big devaluations or depreciations in domestic currency and the subsequent significant output losses of the crisis-hit countries. Turkey has often experienced financial crises in its history. In 1994 and 2001, the nominal domestic currency depreciated 62 per cent and 53 per cent, respectively. This made the effects of large depreciations an interesting event to study and also provided a natural laboratory where the effect of depreciation on economic performance could be observed. Starting in 1987, in a managed float exchange rate regime, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (hereafter, the CBRT) announced daily quotations, and the domestic currency was depreciated continuously parallel to inflation expectations.…...

Similar Documents

Exchange Rate

...LECTURE: TRAN LINH DANG STUDENTS OF TC201DE01-0100 1. Phan Nguyễn Ngọc Xuân Mỹ 101537 2. Vũ Thị Hường 101574 3. Trương Linh Trang 101579 4. Nguyễn Đỗ Thiên Trang 093304 Note for faculty: Date: ___/___/___ For the writer: (Signature & full name) 2012 – 2013 CONTENTS CONTENTS i INTRODUCTION ii I. Exchange rates 1 I 1. Exchange rates 1 I 2. Exchange rate regimes 2 I 3. Roles of exchange rates 3 II. Compare and contrast between the value of VND and the others of ASEAN 5 II 1. The exchange rates in Vietnam from 2008 to 2010 6 II 2. The exchange rates in Vietnam in 2011 8 III. Impacts on exchange rates 10 III 1. Balance of Trade 10 III 2. Balance of Payments 11 III 3. Monetary Policy 12 III 4. Differentials in Inflation 12 III 5. Differentials in Interest Rates 12 III 6. Public Debt 12 III 7. Speculation 13 III 8. Employment Outlook 13 III 9. Political Stability and Economic Performance 13 IV. Adjusted policies of Vietnamese government on exchange rates 14 Recommendation a REFERENCES e INTRODUCTION Since Vietnam began to implement the open door policies and integrate into the world economy, Vietnamese trade has jumped by a so large amount, especially after Vietnam becomes a member of WTO. In reality, Vietnam has currently established diplomatic relationships with 171 countries from all over the world, and trade ones with 165...

Words: 6250 - Pages: 25

Exchange Rates

...Friday, May 3, 13 Principles of Macroeconomics Exchange Rates People, firms and nation exchange products for money and use the money to buy other products to pay for the use of resources. Within an economy, prices are stated in the domestic currency, such as US dollars to European euros. Buyers use their currency to purchase goods. International markets are different. Producers in other countries who export goods want to be paid in their own currencies so they can carry out transactions. As a result, a foreign exchange market develops where national currencies can be exchanged. Such markets serve the need of all international buyers and sellers. The equilibrium prices in these markets are called exchange rates. An exchange rate is the rate at which the currency of one nation is exchanged for the currency of another. The foreign exchange market is the financial relationship between countries that makes it possible for international trade to be accomplished more efficiently than barter. Because each nation uses its own monetary unit, people in one country who want to purchase something in another country must exchange their own currency for the other to accommodate the transaction. Many travelers will research foreign exchange rates before purchasing cheap airline tickets or other means of travel to other countries. Depending on the destination, some travelers can benefit greatly from exchanging currencies .The foreign exchange market is where one nation's currency is......

Words: 1094 - Pages: 5

Exchange Rate

...|Exchange rate |Monetary Policy Framework | |arrangement (Number | | |of countries) | | | |Exchange rate anchor |Monetary aggregate|Inflation targeting framework |Other1 | | | |target | | | | |U.S. dollar (66) |Euro (27) |Composite (15) |Other(7) |(22) |(44) |(11) | |Exchange arrangement |Ecuador |Palau |Montenegro |  |Kiribati |  |  |  |  | |with no separate |El Salvador |Panama |San Marino | | | | | | | |legal tender (10) |Marshall Islands |Timor-Leste ...

Words: 454 - Pages: 2

Exchange Rate

...MP A R Munich Personal RePEc Archive Optimal choice of an exchange rate regime: a critical literature review Mariam Ouchen Cadi Ayyad University, Faculty of Economics Marrakesh Morocco, University of Basel 17. January 2013 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43907/ MPRA Paper No. 43907, posted 21. January 2013 12:56 UTC Optimal Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: A Critical Literature Review 1 Mariam OUCHEN Laboratory of innovation, responsibility and sustainable development Cadi Ayyad University, Faculty of Economics Marrakesh Morocco Center of Macroeconomics and economic theory University of Basel Abstract :This paper set out to review the main theories and empirical methods employed in selecting an appropriate exchange rate regime.In order to achieve this, the paper is organized as follows : Section 2 introduces the distinct classifications of exchange regimes(de jure exchange rate regimes versus the facto exchange rate regimes), and the different theoretical approaches which illustrate how an optimal exchange rate regime is determined . Despite their initial popularity, the theoretical considerations have not escaped criticism.Section 3 reviews the criticism of these theories.A conclusion is provided in Section 4. Keywords :  Exchange rate regime, the structural approach, credibility, flexibility, the bipolar view. 1 - Introduction The literature on the selection of exchange rate regimes can be divided into three main groups : the structural approach, the......

Words: 10108 - Pages: 41

Exchange Rate

...Volatility of exchange rate The main objective of this research is to present a rationalized concept of the theory and composition of exchange rate that are compulsory to solve the important economic problems facing the economy in the country, like volatile exchange rate, unbalanced financial circumstances and frustration of government to have control over domestic money market. “Exchange rate” shows that how much unit of onenation’s currency can be purchased with one unit of domestic currency. More precisely, exchange rate is a conversion factor that determines rate of change of currencies. While exchange rates volatility shows that exchange rate is settled on demand and supply of one nation’s currency, it may turn out fastest moving price of currency and bring all the foreign capital in the economy. Exchange rate volatility can influence the decisions of policy makers and affect the volume of exports and imports. It can also affect the allocation of manufacturing of goods, reserve money, exports, imports and balance of payments. Exchange rate volatility provides chances to domestic investors to invest in foreign currency to obtain higher profits and thus domestic currency undervalue and foreign currency gain values. Moreover, this volatility of exchange rate directly influences the prices of exports, imports, reserve money, manufacturing productions and their growth rates. Traders and investors always support the system where the discrepancy of the difference between......

Words: 4807 - Pages: 20

Exchange Rate

...Impact of Exchange Rate Adjustments and Its Effects on the Balance of Payment The persistency and size of a country’s imbalance payments whether surplus or deficit and the adjustment needed to correct it, depends upon the exchange rate system used. There are two types of exchange rates. 1. Floating or Flexible Exchange Rate, the supply and demand of the currency determines the rate the countries will exchange. No involvement of the Government takes place. Example of floating exchange rate is US Dollar. 2. Fixed or Pegged Exchange Rate, this system is dominated by the Governments of countries managing the rates at which the currency exchanges, and take proper measures to ensure continuation of rates. Example of Fixed or pegged exchange rate is China’s Yuan. (Investopedia, 2013) Depreciation of currency, that is the decrease in currency exchange rate, affects a country’s balance of trade through changes in the imports and export. A trade deficit nation might be able to reverse the imbalance by lowering the relative prices increasing the demand of local goods both domestic and internationally, henceforth increasing exports and decreasing imports. The country can lower the relative prices by allowing its exchange rates to depreciate in the free market or by deliberately devaluing its currency by Government intervention.(R.J. Carabaugh, 2011) For example, China in the past years has shown a surplus in balance of payments, this has majorly been due to the Chinese currency......

Words: 379 - Pages: 2

Spot Rate Exchange Rate

...Critical Thinking, (Spot Exchange Rate) The interest rate on South Korean government securities with one-year maturity is 4%, and the expected inflation rate for the coming year is 2 %. The interest rate on U.S. government securities with one-year maturity is 7%, and the expected rate of inflation is 5%.The current spot exchange rate for Korean Won (W) is $1 = W1,200. Forecast the spot exchange rate one year from today (Hall, p. 318). The forecast spot exchange rate one year from now will be W1,166.35. Explain the logic of this answer? The logic for the above answer begins by understanding the meaning and relationship between Spot, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate Parity, and Fisher Effect. 1. Spot Exchange Rates The interaction between supply and demand influences the exchange spot rate. The spot exchange rate is the daily rate which one currency is converted into another. 2. The Fisher Effect In foreign currency transactions between two countries, the spot exchange rate changes in equal amounts as it moves the opposite direction to the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries. According to the Fisher effect, only the interest rate and not the inflation rate are used for calculating the spot interest rate. 3. Interest Rate Parity The differences in currency values pertain to short-term interest rate differences between two countries. The real int. rate in the United States is 2% (7-% maturity – 5% expected inflation). The real interest......

Words: 486 - Pages: 2

China’s Exchange Rate Regime and Its Effects on the U.S. Economy

...China’s Exchange Rate Regime and its Effects on the U.S. Economy John B. Taylor Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs Testimony before the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology House Committee on Financial Services October 1, 2003 Chairman King, Ranking Member Maloney, Members of the Subcommittee, thank you for giving me the opportunity to testify on China’s exchange rate regime and its effects on the U.S. economy. This is the fifth time that I have appeared before this Subcommittee as an Administration witness. Each time I have been asked to focus on an important facet of our international economic policy. I have testified on our policy toward emerging markets, on our policy for developing countries-including reforms at the Multilateral Development Banks and the new Millennium Challenge Account, and on our policy to remove barriers to the free flow of capital in our trade agreements-including those with Singapore and Chile. In each of these cases, an underlying goal of our policy has been to raise economic growth and increase economic stability around the world, and in doing so benefit the American people with more jobs, more security, and a better life. My testimony today on China’s exchange rate regime will be no different in this respect. The Overall International Economic Strategy for Growth and Stability The Administration’s major economic endeavor now is to strengthen the economic......

Words: 2652 - Pages: 11

Exchange Rate

...Abstract INTRODUCTION When first looking at an exchange rates, and foreign exchange, there are a few questions which must be considered. What factors affect the demand and supply of Australian dollars in the foreign exchange markets? Distinguish between the possible causes and effects of currency depreciation and a currency appreciation on the Australian economy. What forces have come into play, if any, in the past few years that have affected the value of the Australian dollar? In addition to looking further into those questions, it is helpful to know what the word Exchange Rate means; it is defined as, “The rate at which one unit of domestic currency is exchanged for a given amount of foreign currency.”  A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Until 1971, the Australian dollar (AUD) was “pegged” to the British pound. This meant that the AUD rose or fell in line with the pound. In 1971, the AUD became pegged to the US dollar instead. These currencies were fixed currencies, which meant that the Australian currency would only change value when a major world currency also changed. This system lasted only until 1974 when the AUD became pegged to a trade-weighted selection of other currencies. This was still a fixed currency. In 1976 this selection of currencies became moveable. Small shifts were able to take place when needed. In 1983 the AUD became a floating currency. This means that the value of the dollar is determined by supply and demand. Initially, the......

Words: 3252 - Pages: 14

The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates

...The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates By: Benjamin T. Givens INTRODUCTION Over the past few decades, different generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) have been developed in various countries. These differences have arisen in response to the unique legal, regulatory, litigious, social, economic, religious, and cultural environments of the countries they were created in (Wiecek and Young, 1-2). The increase in globalization coupled with related regulations has given rise to the need for a common set of global accounting standards – International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Leading the charge, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), formerly known as the International Accounting Standards Committee, has begun a movement toward harmonization and convergence of GAAP. More than 100 countries currently use IFRS, so if your business goals include global expansion, it is critical to educate yourself about the impact of IFRS on your financial reporting processes and business now (U.S. GAAP vs. IFRS). This paper will focus specifically on the differences and similarities between IFRS and U.S. GAAP with respect to accounting for the effects of changes in foreign exchange rates. The guidance related to accounting for foreign currencies in U.S. GAAP is included in Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) Topic 830, Foreign Currency Matters. In IFRS, the guidance related to accounting for foreign...

Words: 2205 - Pages: 9

Pass-Through Effect of Rmb Exchange Rate on China’s Inflation

...Pass-Through Effect of RMB Exchange Rate on China’s Inflation Contents Chapter 2 Literature review 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Exchange rate pass-through effect 3 2.2.1 Narrowly defined exchange rate pass-through effect 3 2.2.2 Broadly defined exchange rate pass-through effect 4 2.2.3 Complete and incomplete exchange rate pass-through 5 2.3 Relevant theories of exchange rate pass-through 7 2.3.1 Theory of complete exchange rate pass-through 7 2.3.2 Theory of incomplete pass-through 9 2.4 Empirical research on exchange rate pass-through 13 2.5 Summary and reflection 16 Reference 19 Chapter 2 Literature review 2.1 Introduction This chapter reviews the theoretical and empirical researches on exchange rate pass-through effect. Specifically, this chapter firstly introduces the definition of exchange rate pass-through effect, incomplete and complete exchange rate pass-through. Then, this chapter analyses the theory of exchange rate pass-through effect, with focus on the reasons for the common incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect. After theoretical analysis, this chapter reviews and analyses the empirical research on exchange rate pass-through effect. A major part in this section is the review of the perspective and method for analysing exchange rate pass-through effect. Empirical researches generally referred to McCarthy (2000)’s research method, used VAR model, and selected specific area and time window data to empirically analyse exchange rate......

Words: 6617 - Pages: 27

The Exchange Rate

...The exchange rate An exchange rate is the rate at which one currency is exchanged on another one. This rate differs from country to country and depends on many economical variables, the main of which are the general balance and disbalance of economy, monetary and fiscal policy, the state of the budget, international policy, the condition and development of the country’s economy compared to the world situation and dominating countries, purchasing power of the currency, and other internal and external factors. The history of world exchange rate systems shows us that the world community (in its majority) has in fact shifted from the system of fixed exchange rates to floating exchange rate system. Currently there exist different combinations of floating and fixed exchange rate systems, together with specific economical instruments, created for exchange rate regulating. Since the development of production and a number of divisions of labor there existed such a phenomenon as commodity money. There was no other monetary system until 17th century when there appeared coins having an intrinsic value, not linked with commodity. Usually the value of the coin was associated with the content of gold in the coin. The exchange rate between different coins and different currencies depended on the content of gold in the coin as well, and equaled to the relative content of gold in the coins. In 17th century banks started issuing own banknotes which had the same purchasing power as...

Words: 2755 - Pages: 12

Exchange Rate

...The current rate of Singapore’s dollar against the United States’ dollar is 1USD=1.39SGD The Singapore dollar has depreciate slightly since recent months, with rates going to as high as 1USD=1.43SGD on 5th October. The exchange rate between the Sing dollar and the US dollar has been relatively stable since last year, May 2014 to Aug 2014. However, the exchange rate has been rising consistently since Aug 2014. The appreciation of the USD, or the depreciation of the Singdollar was due to a weaker Singdollar. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which uses the exchange rate as its main monetary policy tool made a statement in January 28, mentioning that the Singdollar will be seeking a slower pace of appreciation against a basket of currencies. Given that US is likely to be a large trade partner of Singapore, the exchange rate between Singapore and US is thus likely to be affected. The strengthening of the USD due to signs of economy recovery, and a slower rate of appreciation of the Singdollar, has translated to a depreciation of the Singdollar since August last year. However, there was a reversal in trend in April this year, where the Singdollar strengthened and appreciated against the dollar. This reversal in trend could be due to the MAS decision in April to refrain from easing monetary policy further, which is likely to have increase investors’ confidence, and putting a stop on investors’ expectation of a weakening Singdollar. It is highly likely that the......

Words: 1238 - Pages: 5

Exchange Rates

...6 Factors That Influence Exchange Rates: Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. Exchange rates play a vital role in a country's level of trade, which is critical to most every free market economy in the world. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched, analyzed and governmentally manipulated economic measures. But exchange rates matter on a smaller scale as well: they impact the real return of an investor's portfolio. Here we look at some of the major forces behind exchange rate movements. Overview Before we look at these forces, we should sketch out how exchange rate movements affect a nation's trading relationships with other nations. A higher currency makes a country's exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets; a lower currency makes a country's exports cheaper and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. A higher exchange rate can be expected to lower the country's balance of trade, while a lower exchange rate would increase it. Determinants of Exchange Rates Numerous factors determine exchange rates, and all are related to the trading relationship between two countries. Remember, exchange rates are relative, and are expressed as a comparison of the currencies of two countries. The following are some of the principal determinants of the exchange rate between two countries. Note that these factors......

Words: 1096 - Pages: 5

Exchange Rate

...-21 (revised) OFFICE OF INDUSTRIES WORKING PAPER U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION How Do Exchange Rates Affect Import Prices? Recent Economic Literature and Data Analysis Cathy L. Jabara Office of Industries U.S. International Trade Commission Revised, October 2009 Cathy Jabara is a Senior Economist with the Office of Industries of the U.S. International Trade Commission. Office of Industries working papers are the result of the ongoing professional research of USITC Staff and are solely meant to represent the opinions and professional research of individual authors. These papers are not meant to represent in any way the views of the U.S. International Trade Commission or any of its individual Commissioners. Working papers are circulated to promote the active exchange of ideas between USITC Staff and recognized experts outside the USITC, and to promote professional development of Office staff by encouraging outside professional critique of staff research. This paper is a revised version of Working Paper No. 21 dated May 2009. The paper has been updated to include 4 lags in the exchange rate estimation, instead of 3, and a new equation for Latin America is included. JEL codes: F10, F12 Key words: Exchange rates, pass-through, U.S. imports Address correspondence to: Office of Industries U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 How Do Exchange Rates Affect Import Prices? Recent Economic Literature and Data Analysis Cathy L. Jabara U.S.......

Words: 6701 - Pages: 27