A Report About Public Policy

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就业率决定专业存亡政策分析报告(

刘昶(四号楷体)
摘要:简要说明论文研究工作的主要内容、研究目的、采用方法和主要结论。“摘要”两字宜用小五号黑体,摘要内容宜用小五号仿宋体,不用第一人称做主语, 100字左右。
关键词:关键词1;关键词2;关键词3

政策描述

1.1、政策背景: 从2001年开始到2010年,尽管GDP年增长率保持在平均9%以上的水平,但是我国大学生就业率一直就一直处于70%左右的水平,经济的高速发展没能解决高学历人才的就业问题。正如图2和图6所示,一方面,由于大学扩招,大学生毕业人数成线性增长,从2001年的115万增长到2011年的660万,十年间几乎增长了6倍;另一方面,大学生就业率在2006年达到巅峰时的77%之后,就一路狂跌到平均70%左右的水平。这意味着,我国大学生待业人数也呈现出线性增长的情况。经过改革开放30多年的快速发展,贫富差距扩大、腐败不公等社会问题不断涌现,今年大多数金融机构预测,今后我国GDP的增长脚步将逐渐放慢。而根据著名的奥肯定律,当实际GDP增长率下降3%,失业率将上升1%,从经验的角度上讲,GDP的放缓必将使大学生就业雪上加霜。 [pic][pic] 数据来源:麦可思(MyCOS)-中国大学生就业研究报告 为了解决“大学专业设置不合理”、“大学生就业率较低”的问题,教育部对高职高专院校一直有着将就业率与专业设置挂钩的要求,而针对综合类院校,教育部也早在几年前透露出以“社会需求为导向调整专业设置”、“就业率与高校其他工作联动”的思路。 2004年底,教育部在“2005年全国普通高校毕业生就业工作网络视频会议”上表示,坚决调整过多、过滥甚至不具备办学条件的学科专业,对连续2年就业率不足50%的专业要严格控制招生规模,就业率连续3年不足30%的专业要减少招生甚至停止招生。 2009年底,教育部在《关于做好2010年普通高等学校毕业生就业工作的通知》中再次强调:“对就业状况不佳的专业要客观分析,区别情况采取有力措施予以调整”。但当时,并未对“就业状况不佳”的具体“达标线”作出要求。 1.2、政策目标和方案: 根据教育部在11月10日发布的《教育部关于做好2012年全国普通高等学校毕业生就业工作的通知》中第七条的内容,我们可以归纳出: 政策的目标:“深化高等教育改革,切实提高毕业生就业创业能力”;“进一步优化学科专业结构和人才培养结构”;“超前部署国家战略性新兴产业等所需专业设置和人才培养工作。” 政策方案:“探索建立高校毕业生就业和重点产业人才供需年度报告制度,健全专业动态调整和预警、退出机制,对就业率连续两年低于60%的专业,调减招生计划直至停招。” “继续扩大全日制专业学位硕士研究生招生规模,开展本科和高职高专专业综合改革试点,加大应用型、复合型、技能型人才培养力度。要继续落实就业状况与高校发展相关工作适度挂钩的制度,建立就业状况反馈机制,实现人才培养、社会需求与就业的良性互动。”

问题和不足分析

政策的方案分析: 1、就业率作为需求标准不合理。就业率不能代表国家的长期需求,甚至用它代表短期的市场需求也存在明显的弊端。经济学上,充分就业的情况下也是存在自然失业的,这是即使连发达国家都无法解决的问题,而在发展中国家更是无法避免的。我国大学生的培养周期一般为4年。4年,很多专业的需求都会发生变化,进而对就业率形成影响。例如下表所示,在六七年前就业率很高,非常热门的专业如“法学”、“计算机科学与技术”、“国际经济与贸易”、“数学与应用数学”等,现在已经成了“红牌”专业,薪金、就业率一路走低。而“地质工程”、“水文与水资源工程”、“应用化工技术”等冷门的专业现在却成了薪金、就业率走高的专业。如果以就业率最为需求的标准,将始终落后于时代的步伐,不能满足新兴产业发展的需求。我们学校经济学院的“电子商务”专业,可能就是因此“难产”。
[pic][pic]
(说明:红牌专业是失业量较大,就业率持续走低,且薪资较低的专业中综合考虑的前10个专业,为高失业风险型专业;黄牌专业是除红牌专业外,失业量较大,就业率持续走低,且薪资较低的综合考虑的专业;绿牌专业是薪资、就业率持续走高,且失业量较低的综合考虑的专业,为需求增长型专业。)…...

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