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就业率决定专业存亡政策分析报告(

刘昶(四号楷体)
摘要:简要说明论文研究工作的主要内容、研究目的、采用方法和主要结论。“摘要”两字宜用小五号黑体,摘要内容宜用小五号仿宋体,不用第一人称做主语, 100字左右。
关键词:关键词1;关键词2;关键词3

政策描述

1.1、政策背景: 从2001年开始到2010年,尽管GDP年增长率保持在平均9%以上的水平,但是我国大学生就业率一直就一直处于70%左右的水平,经济的高速发展没能解决高学历人才的就业问题。正如图2和图6所示,一方面,由于大学扩招,大学生毕业人数成线性增长,从2001年的115万增长到2011年的660万,十年间几乎增长了6倍;另一方面,大学生就业率在2006年达到巅峰时的77%之后,就一路狂跌到平均70%左右的水平。这意味着,我国大学生待业人数也呈现出线性增长的情况。经过改革开放30多年的快速发展,贫富差距扩大、腐败不公等社会问题不断涌现,今年大多数金融机构预测,今后我国GDP的增长脚步将逐渐放慢。而根据著名的奥肯定律,当实际GDP增长率下降3%,失业率将上升1%,从经验的角度上讲,GDP的放缓必将使大学生就业雪上加霜。 [pic][pic] 数据来源:麦可思(MyCOS)-中国大学生就业研究报告 为了解决“大学专业设置不合理”、“大学生就业率较低”的问题,教育部对高职高专院校一直有着将就业率与专业设置挂钩的要求,而针对综合类院校,教育部也早在几年前透露出以“社会需求为导向调整专业设置”、“就业率与高校其他工作联动”的思路。 2004年底,教育部在“2005年全国普通高校毕业生就业工作网络视频会议”上表示,坚决调整过多、过滥甚至不具备办学条件的学科专业,对连续2年就业率不足50%的专业要严格控制招生规模,就业率连续3年不足30%的专业要减少招生甚至停止招生。 2009年底,教育部在《关于做好2010年普通高等学校毕业生就业工作的通知》中再次强调:“对就业状况不佳的专业要客观分析,区别情况采取有力措施予以调整”。但当时,并未对“就业状况不佳”的具体“达标线”作出要求。 1.2、政策目标和方案: 根据教育部在11月10日发布的《教育部关于做好2012年全国普通高等学校毕业生就业工作的通知》中第七条的内容,我们可以归纳出: 政策的目标:“深化高等教育改革,切实提高毕业生就业创业能力”;“进一步优化学科专业结构和人才培养结构”;“超前部署国家战略性新兴产业等所需专业设置和人才培养工作。” 政策方案:“探索建立高校毕业生就业和重点产业人才供需年度报告制度,健全专业动态调整和预警、退出机制,对就业率连续两年低于60%的专业,调减招生计划直至停招。” “继续扩大全日制专业学位硕士研究生招生规模,开展本科和高职高专专业综合改革试点,加大应用型、复合型、技能型人才培养力度。要继续落实就业状况与高校发展相关工作适度挂钩的制度,建立就业状况反馈机制,实现人才培养、社会需求与就业的良性互动。”

问题和不足分析

政策的方案分析: 1、就业率作为需求标准不合理。就业率不能代表国家的长期需求,甚至用它代表短期的市场需求也存在明显的弊端。经济学上,充分就业的情况下也是存在自然失业的,这是即使连发达国家都无法解决的问题,而在发展中国家更是无法避免的。我国大学生的培养周期一般为4年。4年,很多专业的需求都会发生变化,进而对就业率形成影响。例如下表所示,在六七年前就业率很高,非常热门的专业如“法学”、“计算机科学与技术”、“国际经济与贸易”、“数学与应用数学”等,现在已经成了“红牌”专业,薪金、就业率一路走低。而“地质工程”、“水文与水资源工程”、“应用化工技术”等冷门的专业现在却成了薪金、就业率走高的专业。如果以就业率最为需求的标准,将始终落后于时代的步伐,不能满足新兴产业发展的需求。我们学校经济学院的“电子商务”专业,可能就是因此“难产”。
[pic][pic]
(说明:红牌专业是失业量较大,就业率持续走低,且薪资较低的专业中综合考虑的前10个专业,为高失业风险型专业;黄牌专业是除红牌专业外,失业量较大,就业率持续走低,且薪资较低的综合考虑的专业;绿牌专业是薪资、就业率持续走高,且失业量较低的综合考虑的专业,为需求增长型专业。)

2、专业的设置标准不应一概而论。对历史、地理、哲学、数学、物理、化学等专业而言,本来就是高校一贯的“冷门”专业。这些专业不属于应用科学,也许需要几百年,才能培养出一两个马克思、牛顿这类的人物,但是一旦出现,世界都会因此而改变。一个国家需要日常干活的工程师,更需要创新的源泉,和引领社会价值观发展的重要力量。这些专业都不是简单的就业率能够衡量其价值的,高校应该重视就业率,但专业设置完全以就业率这样急功近利的思维来衡量就太片面了。期待自己所学的专业能在毕业时适应市场需求,找到一份好工作,是所有学生的愿望。但事实上,并不是所有专业都可以用就业率来衡量的。而从社会导向上来说,京剧专业的毕业生中出名的不如影视表演专业的多,并不应因此就评判京剧专业不如影视表演专业。美国数学、物理等基础专业就业率也不高,但美国还在国情咨文中要求加强大学基础教育。 3、与大学存在的其他目标存在冲突。不同大学本应有不同的办学定位,985高校、211高校这类院校,应该实施精英教育,以能力为导向培养学生,而职业教育学校则以就业为导向,培养学生的职业技能。如果都用就业率评价大学办学,无疑将把所有学校都变为了“职业培训所”。就业率的高低分两种情况来看,很少的一部分精英教育,圈起来做研究,高薪养着,这是国家的脊梁,千万别让原子弹的不如茶叶蛋的,这群人大部分是接受不了市场化考验的;另一部分,把现在二本及以下类别的高等教育全改成应用性或职业性大学,完全按照真实就业率来淘汰专业,甚至学校。

政策执行的分析: 1、缺少相应的专业学术团体和研究机构。该政策的执行需要科学客观权威的产业人才需求数据做支撑,就业率“60%”并不是一个简单的数字,在统计时会遇到很多问题。例如,自主创业、国内读研和出国留学是否应该纳入统计范围?是以一年后的就业率还是以半年后的就业率作为标准?双学位的学生对就业率的影响又该如何评价?非对口专业就业对一专业就业率的影响该如何处理?这些都需要专业的学术团体和研究机构进行调查、统计和分析,才能得出令人信服的结论。但是,目前我国缺少拥有相应专业素养的人士和机构。由于没有统一的标准,使得高校在统计数据上有了很大的操纵空间,政策得不到有效执行。 2、政策执行者难以确定。专业的设置和规模的调整对一个大学来说非常重要,虽然学校作为人才培养的主体,需要及时跟踪了解毕业生就业状况,但是学校的视野毕竟有限,很难掌握全国的整体情况。四年以后不同专业人才的需求状况不是学校可以准确预测的,某专业现在的就业率不高,不代表4年以后的就业率也不高,而现在的热门专业,4年后也许会成为冷门。盲目地减招甚至停招,很有可能造成人才短缺的问题。另外,政策的执行还面临着“减招易,停招难”的问题。事实证明,很多学校在停办个别专业时,遇到了来自于人事、观念等各方面的阻力。比如,一个学校的法律专业停招了,这意味着许多法律专业的教师需要安置。而高校本身很难为这些教师找到令其满意的工作,如果没有政府等其他机构的协调合作,就会出现很多新的问题和纠纷。这需要教育主管部门和人事部门等的支持和配合。 3和其他政策有冲突。当年高校扩招,为了容纳扩招的学生,很多学校将原来的教研室升级为专业,部分工科院校也开设了文科专业,这是应对现实需要作出的选择。但是,经过一段时期的市场检验,这些专业并不能培养出高质量的人才,成为“鸡肋”专业。于是,大学扩招过度成为高校毕业生就业率低的一个主要原因,“稀释”了大学教育的质量和就业率。在就业率难以保证的情况下,进行扩招只有将扩大就业率高的专业的招生名额,如此以来,在GDP不能保持高增长的情况下,势必会降低就业率高的专业的就业率,这样造成了一个恶性循环。

政策效果的分析 1、政策作用范围不大。可以肯定地说,60%的标准对于本科重点院校来说毫无压力,教育部对于本科教学优秀的评价标准是就业率达到80%。而且很多重点院校在招生时,如果专业就业率低于90%,家长和考生就不会选择该专业。从这个角度来看,60%的及格线,对二本院校、三本院校和高职院校来说更具针对性,对于一本院校来说则形同虚设。但是这并不是说一本院校的这些专业就更能满足社会需求,从下图来看,本科院校的专业对口率虽然比高职高专要高10%左右,但在2010年已经低于70%,这并不是一个很好的数据。不管是本科还是高职高专院校,都存在严重的工作与专业不对口问题。由此可以推断,本科院校的就业率更多来自于他们的学校优势,而不是专业优势。因此,该政策不能对一本院校的专业进行实质上的调整。
[pic]
数据来源:麦可思-中国2008~2010届大学毕业生社会需求与培养质量调查。 2、就业率造假。

其次,“掏红牌”措施不可避免地会阻碍教育制度改革。目前我国高等院校多为国有公办,统一纳入教育行政体制,例如旨在使我国高校跻身世界先进行列的“211工程”、“跨世纪工程”,以及名目繁多的各类评审项目,进一步固化了高校与教育行政部门的联系。在这样的大背景下,高校就业率无形中被牢牢捆绑在教育行政部门和学校、领导的政绩筹码上。因此,简单的“掏红牌”措施一方面会因为高校的短期逐利性而对所属专业做出简单的加减,不利于长远的教育发展;另一方面,更容易使高校和相关部门出于一己私利而对就业率进行造假,从而对科学决策造成影响,延误社会及时发现和有效解决高等教育问题的时机。 当就业率成为压在高校身上的一个沉重负担时,不仅会加剧就业率的造假,教育行为也会围绕“就业”这一主要指向运作,教学的过程和目的都会变得极其功利——有的院校就在开展公务员考试相关专业尝试。实用主义的结果是,大学教育越来越世俗化和低级化,基础学科和人文学科越来越边缘化,我们离真正的“大师”渐行渐远,离“我们的大学为什么培养不出杰出人才”的钱学森之问越来越远。 大学之大,在于其独立的大学精神,大学培养人才并非简单的市场行为,就业率并非专业设置是否合理的唯一检验标准,大学培养的是人才,研究的是学术。现在大学的职能正在被异化为产品加工厂,教育部不能再急功近利地推波助澜。如果一个民族只关注眼前利益,不注重基础学术研究,就谈不上什么科技创新,大学就退化成了产品加工厂了。一些基础学科与专业,如历史、考古、理论物理、哲学、数学、地理、中文、法律等专业的就业率可能暂时不理想,按照“就业率低停招”的逻辑推算下去,是否基础专业都要停止招生? 3、“掏红牌”措施并无法从根本上解决高校就业率不高的问题。当前,大学生就业难问题不仅局限于某个学校或某个专业,而是带有普遍性的全局矛盾。其根源就在于现行的教育制度改革相对滞后,以教育大纲为标准设置的一些高校专业早已不适应社会人才市场的要求,造成高等教育和社会之间的供需错位、陈旧思想观念不顺应社会形势和大众化教育发展的需求、职业教育弱化等等苦果。加上当前应试教育和高校课程一味强调“死读书、读死书”,使得我们的一些所谓“天之骄子”空有读书的本领,却因为综合素质不高,难以被企业或单位看中,从而就业困难。因此,仅仅片面强调“掏红牌”,难以从根本上解决高校就业难问题。

4、就业难也反映了就业市场结构失衡的矛盾。正如华南师范大学谌新民教授所言,“现在不是大学生太多了,而是我国产业结构和就业结构存在严重的失衡。由于我国产业结构升级和产业梯级转移的滞后,导致了大学生就业难。”从这个角度看,大学生就业不理想,并非全是专业设置不合理的错,还与产业结构配置不合理、高等教育质量下降有关。况且,就业供求关系是一个动态的概念,产业结构有一个不断调整的过程。今年就业不理想的专业,不意味着明年、后年、四年以后仍然“滞销”。今年就业率高的专业也不意味着来年依旧风景独好。如果专业设置唯就业率马首是瞻,大学专业设置岂不成了“变色龙”?

5、让中小企业发挥吸纳高校毕业生就业主渠道作用无疑是“缘木求鱼”。在我国,中小型企业大多从事劳动密集性产业。然而,高校毕业生基本属于高端人才,他们应该流向“微笑曲线”的上端,而不是从事小学毕业都能干的工作,这显然没有达到人力资源的合理优化配置。要想真正多的吸纳高校毕业生,当前最紧迫的就是进行产业升级和经济发展方式转变,大力发展诸如生物医药科技、环保工程、信息软件等高端产业,与这些产业相对应的生物科技专业、计算机专业、环境工程专业的就业率都很低,如果进行产业升级,这些专业的高校毕业生还愁找不到工作? 6、“被就业”问题。调查了解到,目前就业率主要由高校上报相关部门。因就业率与专业存亡、学校招生等挂钩,个别就业率差的高校会通过将实习鉴定书与就业协议书捆绑等,提高学校就业率,为就业率注水。山东省人事部门和教育部门要求,会严查“被就业”,不准虚报、瞒报就业率,对于伪造毕业生灵活方式就业证明材料或劳动合同复印件的学校,一经查实,将在全省范围内予以通报,并相应扣减毕业生就业率。但为了提高学校就业率,不少高校还是铤而走险。

改进意见

1、加强评估。“怎样才能让大学专业办出特色呢?”熊丙奇说,;另一方面,要推进教育质量的专业评估和社会评估。在对学校教育质量进行评价时,要注重过程性指标和学生的选择性,包括学校教师资源的利用率,学校图书借阅率、试验设备的使用率、大学选修课比重等,这些才是保障办学质量的基础性指标。”
2、我国有些大学专业过多过滥,不是有关部门监控不够,而是管得太多、太死。只有按照教改纲要的要求,给予学校更多办学自主权,大学才能有属于自己的办学定位,也才能根据自己的办学条件,开设相关专业,提高专业的教育质量,进而形成自己的办学特色。“一方面,需要赋予学校充分的办学自主权。只有给予学校办学自主权,大学才能有属于自己的办学定位,也才能根据自己的办学条件,开设相关的专业,形成本校的办学特色

3当前社会上特别是在农村等欠发达地区,弥漫着“读书无用论”,高等教育被视为“投资大,回报少”的亏本买卖,这显然会对社会的可持续发展和国民素质的提高产生不好影响。因此,平衡发展高等教育和职业技术教育,积极进行产业升级应成为推动高校毕业生就业的根本途径。

4、引入第三方机构来评估与监督高校的毕业生就业率统计,杜绝就业率造假,但是,目前为止,我国的第三方机构监督机制依然不成熟。此时推出60%的要求,是否会进一步助长就业率造假之风?

5、“高校的专业设置应根据国家产业结构调整和自身学科发展的需要进行主动调整,而不是以就业率为标准进行被动调整。”天津大学招办主任李振宇说,对于以本科教育为主的高校,应该认真考虑学科布局与社会需求的关系,既要防止盲目地新上专业,造成若干年后由于社会需求改变导致学生就业困难,又要防止因人设专业,不考虑社会需求。更重要的是应该在专业培养计划修订方面结合相关产业发展实际和人才需求情况,加强实习实训教学等实践环节,提高毕业生培养质量与社会需求的匹配度,增强毕业生就业竞争能力。

6、新华网南昌9月7日电 (记者 李兴文) 为力求高校毕业生就业数据真实,2011年,江西首次引入第三方核查机制,委托江西省统计局对全省高校毕业生就业状况进行全面核查,凡就业状况与核查情况不一的毕业生就业协议,不列入学校就业率统计。

高校毕业生就业状况统计对政府正确决策、引导高校改革、学生专业选择、增强公众信任意义重大。为确保方法科学、数据真实,今年江西省教育厅引入第三方核查 机制,6月26日至8月23日,教育部门将有关全省高校毕业生就业状况信息提供给江西省统计局,省统计局组织专门人员,独立办公,对毕业生的就业状况进行 了逐个核查。

表 2010年中国大学毕业生“红黄绿牌”本科专业
[pic]
数据来源:麦可思-中国2008届~2009届大学毕业生求职与工作能力调查,http://www.mycos.com.cn

表 2010年中国大学毕业生“红黄绿牌”高职专业
[pic]
数据来源:麦可思-中国2008届~2009届大学毕业生求职与工作能力调查,http://www.mycos.com.cn
说明:红牌专业是失业量较大,就业率持续走低,且薪资较低的专业中综合考虑的前10个专业,为高失业风险型专业;黄牌专业是除红牌专业外,失业量较大,就业率持续走低,且薪资较低的综合考虑的专业;绿牌专业是薪资、就业率持续走高,且失业量较低的综合考虑的专业,为需求增长型专业。

表 2009届本科毕业生填报志愿时选择各专业大类的首要理由
[pic]

数据来源:麦可思-中国2009届大学毕业生求职与工作能力调查,http://www.mycos.com.cn

[pic] [pic]

[pic] [pic] 图 各类院校2007~2009届毕业生半年后的失业率变化趋势 其中:“211”院校的失业率为非失业人群的剩余人群比例 数据来源:麦可思-中国2009届大学毕业生求职与工作能力调查,http://www.mycos.com.cn [pic] 图 2009届本科毕业生半年后失业人数最多的前10位专业(单位:万人) 数据来源:麦可思-中国2009届大学毕业生求职与工作能力调查,http://www.mycos.com.cn [pic]

图 2009届高职高专毕业生半年后失业人数最多的前10位专业(单位:万人) 数据来源:麦可思-中国2009届大学毕业生求职与工作能力调查,http://www.mycos.com.cn

由社会科学文献出版社正式出版的2009年就业蓝皮书《中国大学毕业生就业报告(2009)》指出,2008年本科院校大学生就业率有所下降。

统计研究数据表明,2008届大学毕业生毕业半年后的就业率约为86%,比2007届大学生毕业半年后就业率下降了2个百分点。但工学、管理学就业率分别为90%和89%,成为2008年就业率最高的两个专业。最低的两个专业是法学和哲学,就业率为79%和76%。

蓝皮书指出,2008年毕业半年后仍未就业人数最多的10个本科专业失业人数为10.75万人,占了本科失业量的35.9%。

其中有8个专业同时也是2007届毕业生失业人数最多的专业,包括法学、计算机科学与技术、英语、国际经济与贸易、工商管理、汉语言文学、电子信息工程、会计学。

从专业中类来看,地矿类专业独居榜首,工科类专业就业率受金融危机影响较小,就业率前十的专业中类中,有8个为理工类专业。专业小类的就业率排名更是明显化了这一倾向。

蓝皮书的作者麦可思(MyCOS)-中国大学生就业研究课题组介绍说,就业蓝皮书抽样人数达到44.4万人,回收有效问卷21.8万份。共涉及全国31个省、直辖市和自治区的3080所高校或分部分院的1196个专业。 “我们每年制定招生计划时,主要是综合考虑就业率、报考率、学校教育资源等。”山大招办副主任朱德建说。他说,目前,学校本科招生计划一般固定在10000人左右,不同专业如何分配计划,每年都会有调整。2006年,因“特征不明、报考率不高、就业率一般”等原因,山大停招医学影像学专业。2010年,山大根据市场需求对新闻专业进行重新定位,减招了50人。 不仅山大,不少驻济高校每年分配专业招生计划时,就业率都是一个重要衡量因素。山东交通学院招生就业处处长田杰昌说,对于就业率较差的专业,学校会考虑减少招生、隔年招生甚至停止招生。“2008年,学校停招了国际经济与贸易(专科)专业。”田杰昌说。…...

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